With Seven To Go, Could The 400 Point Mark Come Into Play?
Saturday, July 22nd, 2006 10:05am EDT
By Luke, Thunder Lounge
Published on Thunder Lounge.
[thumb:168:l:s=1:l=x][thumb:170:r:s=1:l=x]With Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth pretty much stinking up the show on Sunday’s, with Matt behind Jimmie by 68 points heading into Pocono, they’ve left 3rd place in the dust at 243 points behind Kenseth and 311 points behind Johnson. However, 9th and 10th are only 447 points back with seven races left until the Chase field is set.
It’s going to take some incredible luck on the parts of those hoping to make it in on the 400 point rule, and some bad luck on the parts of both Johnson and Kenseth.
Is it possible? Yes, it is.
Is it realistic? Not completely.
How many would be affected if the Chase started today, and let’s say instead of Jimmie Johnson leading 3rd place by 311 points, it were only 111 points? Essentially, if the deficit were 200 points less.
If that were the case, and we use the current standings as a guide (after Loudon), it would look something like this:
- Jimmie Johnson (Leader)
- Matt Kenseth (-68)
- Jeff Burton (-111)
- Kyle Busch (-134)
- Mark Martin (-138)
- Kasey Kahne (-144)
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-161)
- Kevin Harvick (-181)
- Jeff Gordon (-247)
- Greg Biffle (-247)
- Tony Stewart (-258)
- Denny Hamlin (-265)
- Carl Edwards (-393)
Close But No Cigar:
- Kurt Busch (-453)
If this were the case, the 400 point rule for the Chase would bring in an additional three competitors to the mix.
While this is merely an example, and not even close to a prediction, it shows that even with the field tightened up by 200 points, it would only benefit an additional three teams. Of course that’s three more than there would be, and three more happy sponsors.
What this actually shows, is just how consistent Johnson and Kenseth have been. They’ve taken the usual lumps and salvaged them into something worth noting. For the rest of the field, there is only a 154 point separation from 3rd back to 12th. This is 89 points less than Kenseth’s cushion over 3rd place, and 157 points less than Johnson’s lead over 3rd.
What we can learn from this is that anyone in these positions better be on their game over the next seven races. While 1st and 2nd can breathe a little bit for now, everyone else is in for a fight. All it takes is a bad day, and you go from hero to zero in the blink of an eye.
The games of “I’m In, I’m Out” will continue until Richmond. Once the checkers fly, those on the in will breathe a sigh of relief and look to Loudon as a fresh start to make a run at the title. Those on the out will look forward to building for 2007, and trying another run at it.
While the prospect of the 400 point rule could come into play, it’s going to take a lot to make it a reality. The probability of it is low, and the whole reason that there is a 400 point cut off is because under the old system there hadn’t been anyone ever come from more than 400 points back with 10 to go to win the title.
With “tweaks” coming to the format next year, according to Brian France, the heat’s going to be turned up on it and next year should prove to be as interesting if not more.
Filed Under: Nascar, Nextel Cup
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